Report Summary

Period covered: 05 October - 01 November 2025

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Online performance

Online retail sales rose by xx% year-on-year in October, slightly ahead of the xx% increase recorded a year earlier.

This brought average weekly online sales to £xxm, up from £xxm a year ago.

Online accounted for xx% of all retail sales in October, an increase on last year’s xx% share and the strongest penetration rate this year.

All but one category recorded year-on-year growth. Department stores delivered the strongest performance with sales up xx%, supported by early seasonal demand and increased promotions. The only category to decline was Other Non-Food (-xx%), which was dragged down by a xx% surge a year ago.

Key drivers

Cautious but active planning: Shoppers began festive planning earlier than usual, with browsing and list-making underway in October. However, many held off major spending in anticipation of November promotions and the Autumn Budget.

Warm weather, delayed purchases: Unseasonably mild temperatures discouraged early winterwear buying online. Fashion categories saw softer growth compared to last year.

Promotional alignment and precision: Conversion was boosted by well-timed discounts, particularly in beauty, homeware and department store segments.

Macroeconomic backdrop

October’s economic indicators were mixed. On the surface, consumer confidence ticked up, GfK’s index reached -xx, buoyed slightly by seasonal anticipation, yet households were still concerned about the economy and their household finances.

Inflation eased to xx% (CPI), driven by slower growth in goods prices and energy costs but food inflation edged up to xx% having fallen back in the previous month, putting pressure on discretionary spending elsewhere.

Wage growth, slipped to xx% but remained slightly ahead of inflation, offering real income gains. However, the labour market showed signs of cooling with unemployment rising to xx% while vacancies plateaued.

Housing activity remained subdued, with falling house prices and fewer transactions. This had knock-on effects for categories linked to home moves.

Black Friday preview

UK online holiday spending is forecast to reach £xx billion in 2025, a rise of more than xx% and the highest on record, according to Adobe’s 2025 holiday forecasts.

Growth is supported by sharper pricing online, a strong Cyber Weekend, and rising influence from social media and creator channels. This comes after a mixed year for retail, with shoppers cautious and timing purchases around major discount periods.

Cyber Weekend is on track for a strong performance, with spending expected to reach £xx. Mobile will drive almost xx% of seasonal online spend, reflecting how shoppers browse and buy.

Discovery is shifting fast. GenAI-driven traffic to retail sites is forecast to surge more than fourfold as shoppers use assistants for inspiration, comparisons, and deal hunting. Social commerce continues to accelerate, with social-led sales set to grow in 2025.

TikTok has seen stronger momentum this year. Search demand doubled on Fake Friday, which decelerated more gently across the weekend, and surged xx% year-on-year as Black Friday approached.

Outlook

October confirmed the role of online retail as a strategic channel for value seeking and time pressed consumers. Digital sales held firm amid broader caution, with targeted campaigns and operational agility proving critical.

With Black Friday and the wider festive season ahead, ecommerce is poised to gain momentum. Yet with consumer sentiment still fragile and the Budget outcome uncertain, discretionary spend will remain sensitive.

Retailers face a delicate balance: capturing festive demand without over-discounting or undermining profitability.

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Proportion of online retail sales by category